You’re a top quarterback recruit in the country. Offers are piling in from everywhere. Travel is not a deterrent. Your main objective is to play in the NFL one day. The question is, which Conference should be considered to develop into the best NFL-ready quarterback?
There is a huge misconception by analysts on which Conferences are the best for NFL QB hopefuls. Watching the games on Saturday, it would appear that the best quarterbacks play in the south. SEC games are extremely high scoring, fast paced games centered around the QB. Similarly, The Big 12 has high scoring matchups and great television exposure for QBs. Both conferences have national championship contenders year in and out. On the other side, the Big Ten is often labeled as a running oriented conference due to the smash-mouth style of football played. The games are slow paced where defense and controlling the clock wins games. The Pac-10 is the unknown conference with very little east-coast exposure. Recruits are concerned that by playing for a west coast team, the NFL scouts will not take notice of great performance. Then there are the rest: MAC, Conference USA, Big East, Independents, and so on.
After compiling the data of all of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL and what school they attended, the results were interesting and surprising. Bear in mind that I factored into consideration schools switching conferences by giving credit to the Conference which had the school at the time the quarterback played there.
LLLLLLLLLLLLLConference llllllllllll2004 QB Starters
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLPac 10LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL6
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLBig TenLLLLLLLL.LLLLLLLl5
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLBig EastLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLl4
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLMAC LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL3
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSECLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL3
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWACLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLlLL3
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLACCLLLLLLLLLl.LlLLLLlLLL1
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLConf USALLLLLLLLLL=L.Ll1
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIndependentLLLLLLLLLLlLl1
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSun BeltLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL1
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOtherLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLlLL4
Prior to looking up the schools I predicted that the Pac-10 would have the most starters. All the other results were confusing and intriguing.
The most interesting stat I saw was that there are no Big 12 starters in the NFL right now. How could the most competitive football conference in the college football landscape not produce one 2004 NFL starter? More confusing is the fact that the SEC and other Florida schools combined only have 3 starters, and two of them are named Manning. There must be something that analysts and football fans are missing here. Let me break the leaders and see what common trends there are.
The Pac-10 of late has been a breeding ground for QB talent. The starters right now from the conference are very young and talented and more are on their way to the NFL in the next year or so. Heisman winner Carson Palmer (USC), Kyle Boller (Cal), Drew Bledsoe (Wash St.), Jake Plummer (Zona St.), Joey Harrington (Oregon), and AJ Feeley (Oregon) all played in the Pac-10. With the exception of Feeley, all started in the NFL in their first or second season of entering the league. Don’t forget that Tommy Maddox and Chad Hutchinson were starters last season, also Pac-10 alumni. This year or in 2006, another Heisman winner, Matt Leinart of USC, and Aaron Rodgers of Cal will be drafted and starting. The Pac 10 is the most overlooked and impressive conference for quarterbacks in the country, hands down. These results were expected and the conference keeps moving in the right direction.
The Big Ten having five starters was a surprise as well: Trent Green (Indiana), Kerry Collins (Penn St.), Tom Brady (Michigan), Drew Brees (Purdue), and Brian Griese (Michigan). Sometime next year, Drew Henson of Michigan should get the start for Dallas and Kyle Orton of Purdue will get drafted this year.
What separates these two conferences from the rest of the nation? Big 10 football games are low scoring and defensive focused, which is why I was so surprised they were on top of the list. After analyzing the results, I started realizing that so much of controlling the ball in the Big 10 and Pac-10 for that matter revolves around converting on 3rd downs. The Big 10 / Pac-10 QBs know how to make the plays when it counts, are used to playing against tough defensives, and are mentally prepared to play in the NFL. In addition, all Big 10 schools play in cold weather climates, which is a huge adjustment for southern players. The Pac-10 has to play games in Oregon and Washington, also cold weather games, yet not as bad as the Big 10. The NFL season goes through January, meaning that if a player has limited experience in cold-weather situations, you can expect adjustment problems. Ricky Williams who played for Texas always struggled on the road in December and January because of the weather. When is the last time Peyton Manning won in New England? Weather is a huge and overlooked factor and the fact that all Big 10 teams play in cold weather areas can only help. So despite being labeled as defensive and RB-type conferences, these might be the best place to prepare for the NFL.
So what does this all mean? With more Big Ten and Pac-10 starters on the way, it is pretty safe to say that these conferences are the best at preparing QBs for the NFL. Obviously, weather and mental toughness is not the answer for starting in the NFL. Top to bottom, the coaches in these two conferences are superb, the facilities are outstanding, and the tough competition is unmatched. There are no guaranteed wins in the Big Ten or Pac-10, even Indiana wins a few games here and there. After next year’s draft, the Big 10 and Pac-10 alumni QBs will encompass over a third of the entire NFL. Pretty amazing considering those two conferences are only 20 schools out of the hundreds in the nation. I guess the NFL scouts clearly do not have East-Coast bias, for the true talent is in the Midwest and the West-Coast.